Sunday’s showdown with the New England Patriots is the last time the Jacksonville Jaguars will hear the cheers from Duval County until November. They’d better make it count.
Jacksonville is a 2.5-point home favorite hosting the defending AFC champs in Week 3, presenting a tough two-way challenge for New England.
My Patriots vs. Jaguars prediction loves the matchups for the home side, and my handicapping follows suit, giving my best NFL picks for Sept. 27.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Jaguars prediction: Jaguars -2.5
On one side of the ball, Trevor Lawrence is the New England Patriots’ toughest QB matchup to start 2026.
New England faced backup QB Drew Lock for most of Week 1 and crushed a washed-up Aaron Rodgers last weekend. That has inflated the Patriots’ pass-defense numbers.
Lawrence is coming off a hard Week 2 matchup in Denver but still sits Top 5 in many advanced QB measurements and is complemented by an effective rushing attack.
On the other side, the Jacksonville Jaguars' defense can feast on a thinning New England protection. The Jags pass rush is getting solid pressure on rival passers without relying on the blitz.
New England lost top G Mike Onwenu in Week 2, and starting RT Morgan Moses is questionable. Quarterback Drake Maye is dreadful under duress, and two of his four INTs came under pressure.
COVERS INTEL: Drake Maye ranks 36th among qualified QBs when under pressure at PFF and lost his top pass protector in Onwenu. Jacksonville ranks No. 8 in pressure rate per dropback and has two INTs on the season.
Patriots vs Jaguars combo
The Jaguars present a tough two-way challenge for New England, especially with the Patriots missing pieces of their pass protection. Jacksonville will create chaos in the pocket and force Drake Maye into crucial mistakes.
Trevor Lawrence’s legs haven’t been too busy to start the season, but under Liam Coen’s offense, he was the third most active QB in red zone runs last season, scoring nine rushing touchdowns.
The Patriots will need to run the ball to control possession and keep the heat off Maye. TreVeyon Henderson stepped up in his season debut and ran hard. He’ll get a good snap share in Week 3 with projections as high as 57 rushing yards.
Patriots vs Jaguars combo
- Jaguars -2.5
- Trevor Lawrence – Yes 1+ touchdown
- TreVeyon Henderson – Yes 40+ rushing yards
Patriots vs Jaguars touchdown scorer: Trevor Lawrence
Under head coach Liam Coen, we’ve witnessed Trevor Lawrence blossom into a true dual-threat QB.
Last season, he rushed for almost 360 yards and nine touchdowns, coming on 23 carries inside the red zone. That was third among all QBs in 2025, behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
The Patriots didn’t have to worry about slow-mo Rodgers making plays with his legs last weekend, but T-Law can break away when the pressure comes.
New England is blitzing at a high rate, so we could see Lawrence tuck and run if the Pats bring extra bodies inside the 20-yard line. He scored four touchdowns in matchups with Kansas City and Indianapolis, two defenses that finished Top 10 in blitz rate in 2025.
Touchdown probabilities for Lawrence range from 23% to 32% in Week 3, with most at 30%+.
- Top picks: 5-1, +3.44 units
- Combos: 0-6, -6.00 units
Patriots vs Jaguars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 | Jaguars -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (51%) | Under 45.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 42% | Jaguars 58%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Jaguars weather
The forecast for EverBank Stadium is partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-80s which “feel like” 92 degrees on Sunday. Winds are at 8 mph ENE with gusts up to 12 mph, blowing corner to corner. Weather won’t have an influence over the action on the field.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Jaguars trend to know
Jacksonville has been an excellent home side versus the spread the past three seasons, owning an 11-5-1 ATS mark (68%) at EverBank Stadium since 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jaguars.
How to watch Patriots vs Jaguars
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Patriots vs Jaguars latest injuries
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