No. 1 Texas visits No. 14 Tennessee for a marquee SEC matchup at Neyland Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is set for noon ET on ABC, with the Longhorns favored by 5.5 points and the total set at 55.5.
Here are our Texas vs. Tennessee best bets and college football picks for Sept. 26.
Texas vs Tennessee predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Texas moneyline |
66% |
 Tennessee +5.5 |
53% |
| /Over 55.5 |
48% |
| Smothers Under 60.5 rushing yards |
53% |
| Brandon Over 28.5 rushing yards |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Texas vs Tennessee?
Chris Vasile's Week 4 moneyline picks are siding with No. 1 to escape Knoxville with a win.
Our prediction: Texas to win — Yes (64%)
Tennessee should make Texas work for this one, especially in Knoxville, but the Longhorns have more ways to win. Texas can create pressure without constantly blitzing, which is important against a Tennessee offense that wants to stay ahead of the chains and play with tempo.
The Vols' banged-up backfield is another concern. I expect Tennessee to hang around, but Texas' advantage in the trenches and ability to generate explosive plays should eventually separate the Longhorns.
Texas vs Tennessee spread prediction
Our prediction: Texas -5.5 — No (53%)
We’ll find out Saturday whether Rocky Top will always be home sweet home to Peyton Manning when his nephew, Arch Manning, faces his alma mater in a game I ranked among the must-watch matchups in my Week 4 college football Top 25 predictions.
That's because Tennessee has the talent and offense to play Texas close (I like the Volunteers to cover -4.5 or better). Josh Heupel's offense has scored 42+ points in all three games and ranks Top 20 in success rate (51.4%) and available yards percentage (61.8%).
Another slow start from Manning, who played poorly last week against UTSA (28.8 QBR), will allow Tennessee to hang around, with its veteran offensive line and efficient run game taking pressure off freshman QB Faizon Brandon.
Texas vs Tennessee total prediction
Market lean: Over 55.5 — Yes (48%)
College football analyst Rob Paul believes fireworks are in the cards:
One team has a Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB (Manning), and the other has a five-star freshman who was a Top 10 recruit in this past cycle (Brandon). The pair are poised to flash their first-round traits, but the run games are the biggest reason I like the Over at 56.5 or better.
The Volunteers always have a potent offense under Heupel, and this year's ground attack is lethal with DeSean Bishop playing behind a physical offensive line. The Vols are ranked fourth nationally in EPA per rush and 19th in early-down EPA per play.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns' run game should be just as impactful, even if Hollywood Smothers doesn't play. Manning's legs are an X-factor, and Raleek Brown is one of the best No. 2 running backs in the country. Tennessee's run defense has also been struggling, ranking 91st in EPA per rush.
Texas vs Tennessee expert picks
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Texas vs Tennessee player props
Rushing prop: Faizon Brandon Over 28.5 rushing yards — Yes (53%)
Geoff Clark is backing Volunteers freshman QB Faizon Brandon to make an impact with his legs against Texas.
I'd be willing to trade up to 30.5 yards on Brandon's rushing prop because he's averaging 45.7 rushing yards per game and has gained at least 47 yards in two of his three games.
Texas' defense should provide Brandon with his toughest test yet, but that could actually help his rushing prop. If the Longhorns take away his first read or flush him from the pocket, Brandon has the athleticism to turn broken pass plays into rushing yards.
Brandon's mobility might take time for Texas' defense to adjust to, since the Longhorns haven't faced a quarterback this athletic. Tennessee's offensive line is one of the best units in the country, with four returning starters.
Rushing prop: Hollywood Smothers Under 60.5 rushing yards — Yes (52%)
Clark is fading Hollywood Smothers with the Texas running back carrying an uncertain workload into Saturday.
Give me Smothers Under 60.5 rushing yards, playable down to 57.5. Smothers isn't 100%, as he's dealing with a lower-body injury and is expected to be a game-time decision against Tennessee.
Even if Smothers suits up, I'm expecting Texas to manage his workload, especially with senior RB Raleek Brown available to split carries. Brown already has 31 rushing attempts this season compared to Smothers' 41.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry against FBS opponents. A limited Smothers splitting work against a stout Tennessee run defense could struggle to get enough volume to clear this number.
Receiving prop: Mike Matthews Under 58.5 receiving yards — Yes (55%)
Clark is also looking Under on Volunteers WR Mike Matthews in a difficult matchup against the Texas secondary.
There is a three-yard cushion on my Under 58.5 receiving yards prop for Volunteers junior WR Mike Matthews.
Matthews erupted for four catches, 132 receiving yards, and two touchdowns against FCS opponent Furman. Since then, however, he's finished with 16 and 41 receiving yards in his last two games. Matthews has gone Over 58.5 receiving yards in just six of his 16 career starts.
Per Pro Football Focus, Matthews has a failing receiving grade and is expected to line up across from Texas' best outside cornerback, Bo Mascoe. That could make Matthews more dependent on another explosive play to clear this number.
Lastly, QB Faizon Brandon is a freshman making his first start in a marquee game, and I'm skeptical about his ability to consistently push the ball downfield against Texas' defense.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Texas vs Tennessee player props for his complete breakdown.
Texas vs Tennessee live markets explained
Event contracts can be bought and sold as Texas vs. Tennessee unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Texas vs Tennessee prediction markets work?
ProphetX is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will Texas beat Tennessee?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How do prediction markets differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. ProphetX instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Texas vs. Tennessee position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Texas vs Tennessee at ProphetX?
ProphetX offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: ProphetX operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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