George Russell will lead the field to the grid in Baku after securing pole position during qualifying, shaking up the outlook for my Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions.
Championship leader Kimi Antonelli remains firmly in the mix after an incredible eight victories this season, including wins in each of the last two races. The young Mercedes star continues to lead the way in the Formula One odds, but he'll have to chase down his teammate on Saturday.
Let's dive further into the odds, predictions, and free picks for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sept. 26.
📊 Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 George Russell |
65% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
12% |
 Charles Leclerc |
7% |
 Lando Norris |
4% |
| Oscar Piastri |
4% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
3% |
 Max Verstappen |
3% |
| Isack Hadjar |
1% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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🔢 Azerbaijan Grand Prix starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Russell | 2 | Charles Leclerc |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | 4 | Isack Hadjar |
| 5 | Lando Norris | 6 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly | 8 | Max Verstappen |
| 9 | Carlos Sainz | 10 | Franco Colapinto |
| 11 | Ollie Bearman | 12 | Liam Lawson |
| 13 | Alex Albon | 14 | Esteban Ocon |
| 15 | Arvid Lindblad | 16 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 17 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 18 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 19 | Fernando Alonso | 20 | Sergio Perez |
| 21 | Valtteri Bottas | 22 | Lance Stroll |
🏁 Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions
| Driver | Pick | Date | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris |
Win | Sept. 24 | 20% |
| George Russell |
Podium | Sept. 24 | 53% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
Fastest lap | Sept. 24 | 31% |
🏎️ Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks
Picks were made on Thursday, Sept. 24, before qualifying.
Race pick: Lando Norris to win (20%)
Norris has been the pole-sitter in three of the past four races, two of which resulted in wins. The virtual safety car gods were unfortunately not smiling upon him in Spain, contributing to Norris narrowly missing out on another victory and finishing third instead.
That's a significant contrast to earlier in the year for both Norris and McLaren. Norris didn't finish two of the first six events, and he even failed to start one.
Now he's soaring and continually in the fight against Mercedes, and especially Antonelli. He did encounter floor issues in the first Baku practice session, and was 1.5 seconds off Russell's leading pace in the second session while sitting in sixth.
But that's not unfamiliar territory either, as Norris was sixth in the first Spanish Grand Prix practice session, and then moved up to fourth in the third.
McLaren is also bringing an upgrade package to Baku aimed at improving a weakness in slow corners.
Prop pick: George Russell podium finish (53%)
Russell has been flying in the first two practice sessions. He led the first by 0.4 seconds over Max Verstappen, then increased his margin in the second while getting 0.6 seconds ahead of his teammate Antonelli.
There was an even wider gap to Verstappen in third during that session, who finished 0.8 seconds behind.
To the surprise of no one at this point, Mercedes seems to boast the most balanced package that's able to handle the varied demands of the Baku street course.
That makes Antonelli a threat too, of course, but Russell has consistently been qualifying well, putting himself in a position to best his teammate.
He's sat on the front row eight times this season, including during two of the past three races, and Russell has turned that qualifying form into six podium finishes.
Prop pick: Kimi Antonelli fastest lap (31%)
Yes, Russell has been quicker in practice so far, but not significantly. The gap certainly isn't beyond Antonelli's reach, and there are plenty of examples of him flying this season.
The surging Italian has recorded the fastest lap seven times, most recently accomplishing the feat just two races ago in Italy. Russell has only notched one fastest-lap honor, and Charles Leclerc and Norris are the only other drivers to do it multiple times.
Antonelli's warp-speed ways can frequently lead to a sky-high price to pay when backing him elsewhere, especially after qualifying. But he's frequently excelled here in a market that offers a far more appealing price.
🥇Post-qualifying strategy
It's a different race weekend, and one that will unsettle any F1 fan who craves a sense of order to their world. Sundays are usually reserved for race days, but this year the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is on Saturday to avoid a conflict with the country's Remembrance Day, resulting in qualifying shifting to Friday.
You have to then be ready earlier in the week with a strategy and prepare to pivot. And an essential one to maintain is simply this: Trust Mercedes to qualify well, setting up the other powerhouse teams with alluring prices to weave through for a podium position, or perhaps even challenge Antonelli and Russell.
That's been a familiar tale for much of the season, and especially recently. There's been a Mercedes on the front row in each of the past three races, including Russell and Antonelli occupying two of the top three spots after qualifying for the Dutch Grand Prix. The team's dominance isn't going anywhere, but lately we've seen Norris able to challenge, and at points this season both Ferraris have also hung with the Silver Arrows.
Those drivers become that much more intriguing if Mercedes owns the front again, especially in the podium market, where there's a little more margin for error.
🧠 How I'm picking the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
The Baku City Circuit is among the handful of street circuits on the F1 calendar, alongside Monaco, Singapore, Melbourne, Saudi Arabia, and Las Vegas.
This one in particular is challenging because it demands so much of both driver and car over 6 km. There's an excessively long straight where plenty of overtaking happens, and drivers will conserve their battery for that section. But as is a staple of street circuits, there are also lots of narrow, winding corners, particularly as drivers navigate around the medieval walls.
You'll want to target those with street circuit success. That of course includes Antonelli, who won in Monaco earlier this season and enters with an 81-point lead in the drivers' standings.
But Russell is also very much in that group. Russell sat atop the podium in Melbourne earlier this season. He also finished among the top two in Azerbaijan, Singapore, and Las Vegas last year, when Mercedes wasn't nearly as strong.
🏆 Previous Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2024 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2023 | Sergio Perez |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Sergio Perez |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2017 | Daniel Ricciardo |
Red Bull |
❓ Azerbaijan Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
George Russell leads at 65%, ahead of Kimi Antonelli at 12% and Charles Leclerc at 7%.
When and where is the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix takes place at the Baku City Circuit in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, starting at 7 a.m. ET.
How can I watch the Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in 2025?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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