The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards are just around the corner, airing live on NBC from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Monday, Sept. 14, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
HBO Max is favored in the latest Emmy Award odds for Outstanding Drama Series ("The Pitt"). But Apple has seen big momentum, with "Widow's Bay" looking like a buzzsaw in Outstanding Comedy Series and its associated awards.
All odds as of 9-10. Predictions made July 17. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
Emmy Award odds
Odds to win Outstanding Drama Series
Chalk rules. While some surprises will occur, they're fewer and farther between these days when it comes to awards shows. It's true of the Oscars. It's true of the Grammys. And it's true here.
If you want to go against the grain and predict something other than "The Pitt," your best shot might be to invest in "no" instead of trying to isolate which of the other contenders will come through.
Ultimately, though, I expect "The Pitt" to prevail, as no other drama garnered the same amount of attention and fervor (mostly positive) as it did.
Prediction: The Pitt (87% probability at Kalshi)
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Odds to win Outstanding Comedy Series
I feel pretty great about this pick. When I earmarked "Widow's Bay" as the winner in Outstanding Comedy Series, the Apple TV original was sitting at 43% probability at Kalshi. Now, days before the ceremony, it's at 81%.
"Hacks" could still conceivably pull off the upset, but the momentum belongs to the horror-comedy that combines Stephen King with "Parks and Recreation."
Prediction: Widow's Bay (43% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
See above: "The Pitt" reigns.
This has been Noah Wyle's race for months. It would be a colossal upset for him to go home empty-handed, and I don't expect he will.
Now, if you want to read the tea leaves and believe that the field has a chance, follow our value picks' suggestion and take "No" for Wyle to win instead of backing Gary Oldman or Brown. Otherwise, just let it go.
Prediction: Noah Wyle (93% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
For all the mixed reactions the first season of "Pluribus" garnered, that wasn't the case for lead actress Rhea Seehorn, who was widely lauded for her work. Zendaya may be the bigger star, but with "Euphoria" running on fumes, I doubt she cashes in on its final season.
Prediction: Rhea Seehorn (77% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Matthew Rhys has only strengthened his case as the front-runner, jumping from 85% probability to 95% since late July. It coincides with the surge in "Widow's Bay"'s popularity, and I expect he's in as strong a position as Noah Wyle is in Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series.
Prediction: Matthew Rhys (85% probability at Kalshi)
Odds to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Even though I'm fading "Hacks" in Comedy Series, it'd be foolish to ignore Jean Smart, who is a powerhouse in the category. She has never lost for her work on "Hacks," taking home Outstanding Lead Actress in all four seasons to date, and she'll make it a fifth as the final curtain closes.
Prediction: Jean Smart (88% probability at Kalshi)
