Richard D. Wyckoff「Stock Market Techinique」(1933)
ワイコフ語録
Look for your money where you lost it.
Losses are punishment for bad judgment.
Are you riding a dead horse? Get off and get on a live one.
When in doubt, stay out. If you are in, and grow doubtful, get out.
Do not operate for the sake of making trades, but only for the purpose of making money.
It is better to be out of the market for a week or a month than to make one wrong trade. Stay out and your judgment will clarify.
Successful trading depends on a systematic control of losses and the securing of profits in excess of those losses.
When asked whether the market was going up or down, the late J. P. Morgan replied: “Young man, I think the market is going to fluctuate.”
Livermore once said to me: “I go long or short as close as I can to the danger point, and if the danger becomes real, I close out and take a small loss.”
Beethoven’s Sonatas are in any piano if you just happen to hit the right notes, and there is big money in Wall Street for anyone who learns how to play the market.
Three men came to Wall Street. The first always knew what was the best buy. The second knew why it was best to buy. But the third knew neither of these things; he only knew when to buy. He made the most money.
Successful speculation requires foresight. But most people buy stocks because they are earning so many dollars a share; are paying a $4 dividend; their companies are doing a good business. That is dealing with the present. The speculator must calculate what is likely to happen in the future.
The more statistics, the more confusion.
The question is not whether you have lost money in stocks but whether you are going to persist in doing so.
If everybody had placed a stop order on stocks held and purchases made in 1929, there would have been no panic.
Don’t think because you own a stock it can’t go down much farther. Any stock can go anywhere.
The most perfect example of following the trend would be a monkey clinging to the back of a boa constrictor as it wriggled through the jungle.
Trading in stocks is more than a business; it is an art, a science, a profession — whichever you choose. It demands study and concentration if one is to make a success of it.
Are you a tip-and-hunch trader? Thank your stars you now have a shirt on your back. If you continue, you may have to consult the column “ What the men will wear” for the latest styles in barrels.
If I were to give you a tip on a stock and it made good, I would not be doing anything constructive. But if I can show you how to trade successfully without asking for anyone’s tips, I have accomplished something worthwhile.
It is a man’s ego that keeps him coming back into Wall Street in spite of his losses. He will not admit to himself that he is licked. Rarely does it occur to him that while persistence is a virtue, failure to improve his method of procedure delays his final success.
According to a table compiled by Bradstreet’s, incompetence is the greatest single cause of failure in business. The three causes — Incompetence, Lack of Capital and Inexperience— account for 72% of all the failures. This describes the Wall Street picture perfectly.
Why not judge the market from its own action? Thus you get a consensus of the actual buying and selling, however it is generated. For, while the news may influence opinion and sentiment, it is only the orders that are executed on the floor of the Exchange that actually influence prices. Observe which side possesses the greatest power; then go with that side, whether it be the bull or the bear.
A tip is a bit of misinformation divulged by someone who heard it from a person with whom it did not originate.
The best inside information is on the tape. I would rather follow its indications than act on a tip from J. P. Morgan himself.
Most people read the tape after they have made a trade, in order to see how their stock is coming on. Bad practice. They should study the tape beforehand, decide when to trade, when to hold on, and when to close out. The tape will tell them all these things, if they know how to read it.
Some friends of mine would be excellent judges of the stock market if they did not try to mix economics with technique. These two factors too often contradict each other.
Funny how a man will stay away from a stock after it has given him a good spanking.
Never buy an egg until it is laid.
Where certainty ends speculation begins.
A profit is not a profit until it is realized.
It is better to lose the saddle than the horse.
The public is apt to follow the vague and the glittering rather than the substantial and the detailed.
A few fat years are no indication that you can trade successfully. The test is: Are the lean years getting less lean?
The purpose of manipulation is to induce traders to do the opposite to what the manipulator desires to do for himself — make them buy when he wishes to sell and sell when he is buying.
When forming your judgment, all your intellectual powers should be called into play; but when you have reached a decision you should become an order clerk, transmitting to your broker what your judgment dictates.
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Just as an individual by his speech, action, habits and characteristics will indicate what he is intending to do and how he will act under a given set of circumstances, so the stock market indicates its future course by its own action.
When you understand stock market science you have no concern about important developments in your morning newspaper, because the news is not a factor in your operations.
You have learned that all the news, rumors and other developments are embodied in the action of the market as shown on the tape of the stock ticker.
You pyramid only when the market is moving in your favor. In other words, you have learned to trade with the other fellow’s money; thus you avoid digging down in your jeans for more of your own.
That being the case, it seems to me the public should learn how to invest or speculate scientifically and successfully; or let Wall Street alone — leave it flat — and never go back.
Why is it that all the common sense which accrues from long experience in other fields seems to be laid aside when a man enters Wall Street?
Equip yourself for participation in the great game that centers in Wall Street, to the end that you may find yourself eventually a fully qualified, successful operator, never asking anyone’s opinion or advice, but depending absolutely on your own judgment.
I am frequently asked: Do you mean to say that you don’t consider what the stock is earning or the dividend it pays? Or its prospects? Or the condition of the industry? Or any of the other factors that are generally used in forming opinions about stocks? My answer is: You can get the best results by concentrating on the action of individual stocks and the market as a whole — when you know how — because all such influences as earnings, dividends and industrial prospects are reflected in price and volume adjustments before they otherwise become apparent.
Thirty years ago Charles H. Dow called attention to the importance of studying the price movements of the stock market. These, he said, contained the sum of all available knowledge bearing on the future course of the market: “The market reflects all that the jobber knows about the condition of the textile trade; all that the banker knows about the money market; all that the best-informed president knows of his own business, together with his knowledge of all other businesses; it sees the general condition of transportation in a way that the president of no single railroad can ever see; it is better informed on crops than the farmer or even the Department of Agriculture. In fact, the market reduces to a bloodless verdict all knowledge bearing on finance, both domestic and foreign.
“The price movements, therefore,” continued Dow, “represent everything everybody knows, hopes, believes and anticipates. Hence, there is no need to supplement the price movements, as some statisticians do, with elaborate compilations of commodity price index numbers, bank clearings, fluctuations in exchange or anything else. The price movements themselves reflect all these things, and therefore an understanding of all these things can be obtained directly through obtaining an understanding of the price movements of the market.”
First, you learn to forecast the trend of the market. Then trade with that trend. You derive a net profit from a series of transactions in which your profits exceed your losses.
The Wall Street Menagerie
Associating with our well-known friends, the Bulls and Bears, we find numerous other creatures in Wall Street. The Owl, wise looking but silent — very rare. The Flea, always hopping in and out of the market. The Porcupine, forever sticking someone. The Workhorse, meaning the Managing Partner in a brokerage house. The Parrot: he repeats the tips. The Mole that gets at the root of things. The fright-paralyzed Horse that refuses to leave the burning stable. The Shark that feeds on the poor fish. The Rabbit, so easily scared. The Bulldog that hangs on too long. The Sheep, so easily led, and the Lambs so frequently sheared. The Hog, never satisfied with his profit. The Wolf that preys upon the weak. The Ostrich that buries his head when he expects a margin call. And then there are the Jackass and the Poor Fish. Who
among us has not been one of these?
In our Wall Street Menagerie we omitted to mention the Straddle Bug who tries to make money out of both the long and the short side of the market at the same time.
There are bulls, bears and various other animals, insects and parasites in Wall Street, but the worst of all is the straddle-bug. His way of advising you always leaves him a loop-hole so that he can go back and prove to you that no matter what happened he was right.
Few traders actually appreciate the possibilities contained in the very essence of the Dow theory which was: “The price movement represents everything everybody knows, hopes, believes and anticipates.” Dow meant that the key to the trend of the market is found in the action of the market itself.
An experienced judge of the market regards the whole story that appears on the tape as though it were the expression of a single mind; that is, the composite mind of all the traders, investors, bankers, pools, institutions and others who are participating in the transactions.
The tape of the stock ticker resembles a moving picture. The scene changes every moment. While the story is continuous, the outcome of the drama is not always clear, although the trend of events may be so to a certain degree. Just as a scenario writer endeavors to mystify his audience, so pools and manipulators strive to confuse and influence the public into thinking a stock is moving in a certain direction when the ultimate purpose is to have it move the other way.
The stock market is like a moving-picture film on which every flash is different in some respect from those that precede and follow. By observing every detail that appears on a film one may study the action of the characters, read their purposes, and judge what they are likely to do when put !to the test. Obviously, nothing like a cut and dried system can be applied to such a series of observations, but it is frequently possible to tell, early in a film, how the action will terminate, notwithstanding the efforts of the author to disguise his purpose and deceive his audience. So it is with manipulation as it appears on the tape.
Just as a race horse is trained and groomed for a certain race on a given day so a stock which is to have a substantial move in a certain direction finally reaches a point in its market gyrations which is the equivalent of being ready to go. Another illustration would be that of a swimmer who steps out to the end of the spring-board. When he gets there we naturally infer that he is about to dive. How far he will go thereafter, depends upon his strength and endurance.
Why not form your conclusions from the action of the market itself? Then you will be getting your information at first hand — reliable information.
And when you know how to interpret market action, you will make far more money out of the stock market — and keep it — than if you had all the world’s Fundamental Statistics poured into your lap every minute of the day. For the effect of all the Statistics that you and millions of people absorb from their daily newspapers, and news tickers is all boiled down on the tape.
I never try to rub the market’s nose in my theories. Long ago, I learned that the market disregards what anyone thinks it should do. It has a way of its own.
It is enough to know that the market tells me what it is probably going to do today and in the near future. I do not expect to be informed very far in advance, because the market often changes its course. I must change my position accordingly.
Thus my mind is a slate on which the market writes its forecasts; these I accept at par. As for its instructions, these I shall execute — promptly and confidently. And when indications are altered or reversed, I shall continue to obey, because I am convinced that the market knows more than I know about its own future: more, in fact, than anybody and everybody.
It is a cardinal folly of human nature to believe what one wants to believe rather than what is so, and to love to hear what is pleasant rather than what is true.
Accumulation does not always mean that large interests have been buying, but that stocks are going out of weak hands into the strong boxes of those who buy outright. Many fortunes will be realized by those who have thus acquired what others were forced to sacrifice.
The value of any chart depends upon the ability of the operator to interpret it so that he may, by its aid, refresh his memory; make his forecasts; extract profits from the market. No chart is of any use whatever unless it can be interpreted with accuracy. A chart is a transposed tape; it is merely a tool which aids a stock trader. He records on his chart what bas happened; then estimates what is likely to happen. The more he studies it the more benefit he derives.
When you buy a house you immediately insure yourself against fire. Placing a stop order on a long or short trade is in the same category. The fire policy protects you against a large loss. That is just what the stop order is intended to do.
Ask the man in Wall Street what he would rather know L about the stock market and frequently you will get this answer: “I would like to be able to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.”
Now there is much more profit to be had if one can correctly forecast the swings of five points or more. The total of such swings is many more points than the difference between low and high.
To get the benefit of these intermediate swings of five to thirty points one must have a certain flexibility in his mental attitude. He must be able and ready to trade on the short side as well as the long. Unless he can do this there is only part of a profit awaiting him in these swings.
Learn to stand on your own feet marketwise. Then you’ll know what to do and what not to do. And you can either blame yourself or pat yourself on the back.
Which is as it should be.
There is an old saying: The tape never lies.
Your judgment should be based on sound premises. You have all the facts before you; assemble these and make your diagnosis. Decide what the situation calls for; then use courage in acting upon your decision. Be courageous, and somewhat bold, but with a certain measure of prudence — alertness and watchfulness combined with caution.
Allow for the unforeseen and the incalculable.
Learn to think and act promptly. Your decision becomes a command to trade. Having placed your order, never fear to revise your opinion. You must have flexibility; the mere holding of a certain position is no reason for your holding it; never be bullish or bearish just because you are in a trade.
The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.
Your judgment will become poorer from the very time when you decide that you know more about the market than the market is telling you.
In this trading business the tape is the boss. You must learn to obey its orders, doing exactly what it tells you.
Supply and demand are practically always unbalanced. That is what makes trends.
Trading should never become a habit (like smoking cigarettes) so that you’ve simply got to satisfy that craving to jump in and out. Such a practice warps the judgment; eagerness to trade supplants deliberation.
Not because we itch to buy or sell should we make a trade, but because the market says: Here is a real opportunity.
And when we get in, we should not be on a nervous edge until we get out again. When we do this it is because we are not sure of our ground. We should make certain before we start. And only get out because the action of the market indicates it is time to close the trade.
テクニカル分析 vs ファンダメンタルズ分析
The Technician Debates with the Fundamentalist
Tech.: For many years now you have been following these fundamental statistics and I would like to inquire how you have made out. Have you really made any big money in the last twenty years?
Fund. : I have not done as well as I expected. I have made quite a pile of money at different times, but there have been other quite extended periods when I found myself on the wrong side of the market, hanging on to a lot of long stocks. I haven’ t been very much of an operator on the short side.
Tech. : Then your long suit has been to buy for a long pull when you thought conditions were right?
Fund. : Yes, I have always been willing to hold stocks when their earnings were good and the dividends seemed well secured with prospects of higher rates being paid. I admit that these statistics have fooled me many times and kept me from getting out when I should have.
Tech .: Have you ever taken the precaution to limit your risk on any of these commitments?
Fund. : No. I made a practice of holding my long positions based on the above facts until I observed that earnings were falling off; then, I thought, it was time enough to get out.
Tech.: But didn’t the market often decline seriously without any material change in the earnings and other statistics on which you based your trades?
Fund.: Yes. I did not perhaps turn quickly enough, and I was often disconcerted by the apparently unexplained declines in stocks. It seemed to me that insiders who had been selling must have known that these changes in earnings were coming and based their market commitments accordingly, because there always seemed to have been some wise selling before the declines began.
Tech. : What do you regard as your most reliable indicator among ‘he various factors that you employ?
Fund.: Car Loadings, Commodity Prices, Steel Earnings, Motor Car Production, Electric Power Consumption — these are probably the most valuable.
Tech. : But none of these tell you just when or what to buy or sell, do they?
Fund.: No, I can’t say that they do, but I use them as a basis for my calculations as to the broad moves of the market and the probability of turning points being foreshadowed.
Tech. : Do you ever feel the necessity for a more accurate barometer? I mean one that would tell you within a day or two of the actual turning point?
Fund. : Yes. I have never been able to determine turning points so closely, because the changes in the trend of important statistics are slow, requiring weeks or months in their formation of definite indications, under my way of calculating.
Tech. : Why don’t you consider the action of the market, that is, the study of supply and demand of stocks as an indicator, instead of all these (what I call) vague and misleading factors which are so difficult to turn to practical account? And why don’t you realize that the up-to-date manifestations of supply and demand represent the resultant of all these other forces, including not only those that are observable but many big obscure forces that are not available to the public and sometimes are not even known to the real insiders in the market? All the important factors, both known and unknown, are integrated in this constant readjustment of supply and demand. For instance, three months after the close of the 1932 calendar year I get a report that U. S. Steel Corporation’s net income shows a deficit of $71,000,000 for that period. Am I to assume from this that as this report is very bad I am to throw over any Steel common or preferred that I may possess? There seems no other course if I am to act as you do — on fundamental statistics. Certainly there is no indication in those figures that it is time to buy. If, on the other hand, I study the action of Steel common and preferred in the market for the past three or four months, what do I find? Certainly no evidence of approaching calamity. The action of these stocks contradicts the big deficit. The latter says: “Get out,” whereas the action of the stock indicates to me that there is something more promising for the future. If I have to wait until the earnings show definite improvement the chances are I will miss the first twenty or thirty points of the rise. But my buying indications will appear when the insiders, who are able to estimate the earnings several months in advance, begin to make their commitments and their banking allies do the same. This will show me, in the face of adverse reports, that it is time to buy. And if I watch these indications on the tape and on my charts I will see them confirmed. As the science of trading requires foresight, we must read the first indications that are available. These are found in the action of stocks and not in statistics covering the general situation or in this company’s operations. They don’t come along till months after the party is over.
Fund. : What you say certainly deserves consideration.
Dixon G. Watts
All business is more or less speculation. The term specuIation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. The uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws. This is a serious error.
George Macdonald says: “A man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can have another man’s soul or another man’s body.”
“He who observes,” says Emerson,“ and observes again, is always formidable.”
In the words of Macbeth: “Henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” Think, act, promptly.
Never overtrade. To take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. With such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.
In speculation there is value in Mirabeau’s dictum: “Be bold, still be bold, always be bold.”
There should be a balance of these two, prudence and courage; prudence in contemplation, courage in execution. Lord Bacon says: “In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution none, unless very formidable.”
The market has a pulse, on which the hand of the operator should be placed as that of the physician on the wrist of the patient. This pulse-beat must be the guide when and how to act.
One man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market; his friend judiciously and laconically replied: “Sell down to a sleeping point,”
When in doubt do nothing. Don’t enter the market on half convictions; wait till the convictions are fully matured.
リチャード・D・ワイコフ.
相場勝者の考え方
短期売買をビジネスにするための心理
株価が動き始めるには一定の力が加えられることが必要だし、株価が到達できる距離は、初めの力に対して、途中で新たに加わってくる力を足し、押しとどめようとする別の力を引くことによって得られるわけだ。大規模な株のアキュミユレーション（一般大衆が売る一方で情報に通じた大口トレーダーが買こと）は、銃に火薬を詰め込むことに例えられるだろう。株の消化が行われると、ひとりの手に株が集中すると同時に、アキュミユレーションが起きた株価水準での浮動的な供給が吸収される。一方、株価上昇の時期は弾薬の爆発になぞらえることができる。株価が上昇して頂点に達しようとするときまでに出合う売り圧力は、弾丸が目標に当たるまでに受ける空気抵抗や重力の作用に似ていると言っていいだろ。この説明からも分かるように、最短期間で最大の利益を生み出しそうな銘柄を選ぶときは、上昇や下落を推進する力を、なんらかの仕方で計算しなくてはならない。それと同時に、株が一定のコースを通って目標に向かうときにぶつかりそうな抵抗力についても、見通しを立てておく必要がある。
大衆は普通、良いニュースを聞いて買い、悪いニュースを聞いて売る。しかし、インサイダーやプロはその逆をやるのである。
ティッカーテープに現れるすべての現象を、支持つまり押し上げ力か、圧力つまり売り圧力として解釈するのだ。そして、常にこの二つの力を比較する。
「ブームのときに、来るべきバーゲンに備えよ」
嘘には三種類ある。普通の嘘とひどい嘘と統計データである。
